Your one stop source for the latest commentary on New Politics and New Media.
Regular publishing by NPI Fellows Peter Leyden, Simon Rosenberg and Tim Chambers
NPI Fellow Blogs
Blog Controls
Syndicate
Places We Go
MoveOn Learns to Herd the Cats of User-Generated Content
Much has been made about the wonders of user-generated video and other content that average people just spontaneously create for a candidate or a cause. But people in organizations and campaigns mostly think of these outbursts as random and impossible to initiate or influence. That’s why MoveOn’s “Obama in 30 Seconds” project is so important to watch. Once again MoveOn points the way towards how to effectively herd the cats of the viral world.
On Tuesday, MoveOn announces the finalists of the contest on the project’s dedicated website. The basic story, in case you have not heard, is that they asked average people to put together positive ads for Obama in the classic 30 second formula -- only via the web. In short order they had more than 1,000 submissions, which they then set up on a website that served up each of them one at a time for viewers to watch and rate. Each time you went to the site, you would be served up a different ad, or as many as you wanted served to you. Some were ok, as you would expect from any open contest (ever watch the early rounds of American Idol?), but some were terrific. Here is my favorite from my random troll.
The finalists in the voting will then be considered by an all-start panel of Hollywood types and other progressive heroes from Matt Damon to Moby and from Lawrence Lessig to Markos. The very top ad will be put on mainstream TV with MoveOn money. Already they have drawn 4.7 million votes, and they have not even begun the push that will come from having the top dozen examples or so.
The whole process is a deliberate attempt to solicit bottom-up media, structure a method to get to the ones with the most viral potential, and get everyone thinking about positive messages about Obama – and then sending them around the Web for their friends and family to see.
Other progressive organizations and campaigns should take note of this basic formula. It’s building on the truly innovative breakthrough that MoveOn did in the 2004 cycle with its “Bush in 30 Seconds” contest. That was a similar bottom-up video contest but done before YouTube even existed. It was truly visionary at the time.
This Obama in 30 Seconds does not have the breakthrough innovation, but it does refine and improve the process. And thankfully, they are encouraging not a negative spot on them, but a positive spot on us. It’s a much better direction to move towards. Congrats to MoveOn once again.
The Age Factor in the Race
MillennialsWith the Pennsylvania results looming, I thought I would point out a terrific story and graphic on the generation gap between followers of Obama and Clinton that might help explain results tonight.
In a campaign where demographics seem to be destiny, one of the most striking factors is the segregation of voters by age. In state after state, older voters have formed a core constituency for Mrs. Clinton, who is 60, while younger voters have coalesced around Mr. Obama, who is 46. Age has been one of the most consistent indicators of how someone might vote — more than sex, more than income, more than education. Only race is a stronger predictor of voting than age, and then only if a voter is black, not if he or she is white.
The graphic below gives the data to visually back up the claim. It’s striking how lopsided the Millennial Generation (the term we use for those voters under age 30) go for Obama, while older folks go for Clinton. Note that the numbers refer to the percentage point difference between what each candidate received. So young people went 75 percent to 25 percent for Obama in Virginia, while people over age 60 went 60 percent to 40 percent for Clinton in Ohio.
What does that mean for Pennsylvania? It turns out Pennsylvania is the state with the second highest proportion of people over 65 – behind only the perennial leader, Florida:
Age is likely to play a particularly strong role in the Democratic primary Tuesday in Pennsylvania. The outmigration of young people has left the state with the second-highest proportion of people over 65 in the country, after Florida. Fifty-eight percent of registered Democrats are older than 45, a consistent dividing line in the race.
Regardless of the result tonight, the generational lens continues to be a fascinating one to put to this election, as we consistently do at the New Politics Institute. Just think about what happens when the other candidate is the oldest one who has ever run for office...
NPI Event on Thursday
Broadcast | CableThe transformation of television, and what it means for advocacy and politics
For most of the last 50 years, television has been the dominant medium of advocacy and politics in America. Partisan politics have been about 30-second spots and eight-second sound bites on the evening news. Most of the billions spent by advocacy groups, party committees and candidates every two years go on television, and most of that money, on traditional live broadcast television. Broadcast television was the filter through which politics was experienced by most Americans.
But that old world of traditional broadcast television is going through profound and historic change. The rise of a broadband-based global communications networks is challenging the monopolistic distribution of video long enjoyed by broadcast TV. Cable and satellite viewership overtook broadcast viewership seven years ago. Digital video recording devices, led by TiVO, are altering our basic relationship to TV in ways that are only beginning to be understood and are showing explosive growth. The day on which TV ads can be delivered to your cable or satellite box, individually tailored to you, is very near. And the velocity of this all this momentous change, is, if anything, increasing.
To reflect on all this and what it means for advocacy and politics, we've assembled three brilliant panelists, all with deep knowledge of the medium. For anyone in the business of progressive advocacy and communications, you won't want to miss this compelling NPI event this Thursday, April 24, on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC.
Joining me this Thursday for a lively discussion will be:
Todd Juenger, leader of TiVo's Audience Research and Measurement business, which provides detailed insight into how TiVo viewers consume and interact with television programming and advertisements.
Tara Walpert, President of Visible World, Inc., a company that uses new tools to customize and target advertisements so that the right message reaches the right audience at the right time.
Evan Tracey, the founder and chief operating officer of Campaign Media Analysis Group, the leading custom media research company for politics and public affairs advertising expenditure data.
We believe this event will provide you with a practical understanding of how to navigate the changing world of television and how to make the most effective use of new technologies. So please join us on Thursday, April 24, at 12 p.m., in the ballroom at the Phoenix Park Hotel, 520 N. Capitol St., NW, Washington, DC.
Please make sure to RSVP here. If you have questions, please contact Courtney Markey at 202-544-9200 or cmarkey@ndn.org.
Finally, be sure to hold the date, Friday, May 9, for The New Tools and New Audiences of Campaign 2008, a day-long event on how to best harness the potential power of new technologies and demographic shifts.
For background, check out our Buy Cable Smart Memo, our New Tools Campaign Checklist, our paper on Viral Video in Politics, and our Study on Fundamental Shifts in the US Media and Advertising Industries.
The ABC Debates and the Death Throes of Old Media and Old Politics
As a former journalist, schooled in the great traditions of journalism of the 20th century, I have to add my voice to the chorus and say that I was deeply disappointed in the performance of the profession in the debate last night. Deeply disappointed, if not angry, and yes, maybe a bit bitter.
At a moment when America needs our journalists and commentators on politics to help the country move beyond the petty, bickering, red-herring politics of the past 25 years, the moderators of the debate went back for one long immersion. George Stephanopoulos and Charles Gibson spent the entire debate at this momentous time in American history trying to parse out the clauses of off-hand remarks, point out the support of people with seven degrees of separation from Obama, and trap the candidates in these gotcha moments that would put a ripple in another 24 hours news cycle. It was deeply disappointing.
I must say, in my opinion, Clinton did not do much to resist the flow back to those past norms. She cut her teeth in that kind of political environment, learned to play well at that game, won a lot, and lost some. She seemed perfectly at home going back to the gotcha, parsing, split-hair politics that defined the Bush Clinton Bush years.
Obama truly did try to do something different, tried to break into a new kind of politics, a new kind of framework, a new kind of discussion. He needed to show he could battle head-to-head, and not appear wimpish, but he genuinely tried to shift the conversation to a higher plain. He did ok in that – certainly better than anyone else on that stage.
It’s so disappointing because our country is at a moment in history in which we face a series of deep structural changes to the American economy and society, to the whole world order, and we are up against a series of 21st century challenges that are unprecedented and extremely complex. If anything we need to call upon the best in the American people, the best in American political leaders, and the best in American journalists, to rise to the occasion, face up to the challenges, and help figure this out for the country and the world.
At a moment when we need that, the last thing we need is to get completely mired in this old politics, in which we’re worried about who wears a lapel pin, or whose supporter was a radical Weatherman 40 years ago. At a moment when our country needs to fundamentally rethink how we run the economy, how we distribute wealth, reinvest in our infrastructure, shift to new energy sources, rebuild our schools, provide healthcare in a 21st century setting of biotech and genetics, Stephanopoulos is trying his best to get the candidates to say: read-my-lips-no-new-taxes. He’s trying to fiscally hamstring the country for the next four years, or catch the Dems in a way that will allow McCain, a throwback not just to Bush but to Reagan, to hammer them about raising taxes this fall. (Folks, how many more times can we retread tax cuts as the center of our economic policy? The deficit is in the trillions, our infrastructure is collapsing, etc, etc. Why are we still back in that old Reagan frame?)
It’s difficult to watch and not get angry, and maybe even bitter.
One thing that makes me hopeful that is a basic confidence in the American people, the bedrock of our democracy. It looks like people are not buying this. In the bigger context of the race, Obama, who is bucking this old framework and forging a new one, maintains a lead and momentum. In the smaller context of the upcoming primaries, these distractions do not seem to be pushing the poll numbers around much.
You have to hope that there is a core wisdom in this complex mix of classes and ethnic groups and races that makes up this amazingly diverse democracy. You have to hope that a collective wisdom will come out of this process that moves away from the old politics, built on that old media and old journalism, and moves towards a new politics, which is increasingly built on new media.
It’s worth remembering the YouTube debates. They were not perfect by any means, but they were far better than the debate driven by the best of ABC News. At least CNN and YouTube blended together and tried to pose questions from average people with real concerns, balanced by journalistic analysis. The candidates were able to mostly talk about real issues and not this gotcha stuff.
It’s good that politics now has a more open new media environment to turn to when the one-way broadcast media proves wanting. Now people can see Obama expound upon a gotcha race moment at great length via a 45 minute video of his speech. They can just go to the web and instantaneously see it. The environment of new media is allowing for a new politics, a new conversation, a higher plane of discussion that is woefully missing from the politics of the last 25 years.
Some people lament the collapse of broadcast TV ratings, the freefall of newspaper circulation and ad revenue, and there is a place in my heart that laments the undermining of the great journalistic tradition of Edward Murrow and the Watergate reporters. But when I see performances like those of Stephanopoulos and Gibson, it makes me think: bring it on.
The power of mobile
Mobile MediaComing on the heels of a slew of stories about how people have been using mobile phones to organize against the government in places like Tibet and Egypt, the NY Times magazine published a truly great article yesterday by Sara Corbett on the growing global power of mobile phones, Can the Cellphone Help Global Poverty? An excerpt:
To get a sense of how rapidly cellphones are penetrating the global marketplace, you need only to look at the sales figures. According to statistics from the market database Wireless Intelligence, it took about 20 years for the first billion mobile phones to sell worldwide. The second billion sold in four years, and the third billion sold in two. Eighty percent of the world's population now lives within range of a cellular network, which is double the level in 2000. And figures from the International Telecommunications Union show that by the end of 2006, 68 percent of the world's mobile subscriptions were in developing countries. As more and more countries abandon government-run telecom systems, offering cellular network licenses to the highest-bidding private investors and without the burden of navigating pre-established bureaucratic chains, new towers are going up at a furious pace. Unlike fixed-line phone networks, which are expensive to build and maintain and require customers to have both a permanent address and the ability to pay a monthly bill, or personal computers, which are not just costly but demand literacy as well, the cellphone is more egalitarian, at least to a point.
"You don't even need to own a cellphone to benefit from one," says Paul Polak, author of "Out of Poverty: What Works When Traditional Approaches Fail" and former president of International Development Enterprises, a nonprofit company specializing in training and technology for small-plot farmers in developing countries. Part of I.D.E.'s work included setting up farm cooperatives in Nepal, where farmers would bring their vegetables to a local person with a mobile phone, who then acted as a commissioned sales agent, using the phone to check market prices and arranging for the most profitable sale. "People making a dollar a day can't afford a cellphone, but if they start making more profit in their farming, you can bet they'll buy a phone as a next step," Polak says.
Last year, the World Resources Institute, a Washington-based environmental research group, published a report with the International Finance Corporation entitled "The Next Four Billion," an economic study that looked at, among other things, how poor people living in developing countries spent their money. One of the most remarkable findings was that even very poor families invested a significant amount of money in the I.C.T. category - information-communication technology, which, according to Al Hammond, the study's principal author, can include money spent on computers or land-line phones, but in this segment of the population that's almost never the case. What they're buying, he says, are cellphones and airtime, usually in the form of prepaid cards. Even more telling is the finding that as a family's income grows - from $1 per day to $4, for example - their spending on I.C.T. increases faster than spending in any other category, including health, education and housing. "It's really quite striking," Hammond says. "What people are voting for with their pocketbooks, as soon as they have more money and even before their basic needs are met, is telecommunications."
There are clear reasons for this, but understanding them requires forgetting for a moment about your own love-hate relationship with your cellphone, or iPhone, or BlackBerry. Something that's mostly a convenience booster for those of us with a full complement of technology at our disposal - land-lines, Internet connections, TVs, cars - can be a life-saver to someone with fewer ways to access information. A "just in time" moment afforded by a cellphone looks a lot different to a mother in Uganda who needs to carry a child with malaria three hours to visit the nearest doctor but who would like to know first whether that doctor is even in town. It looks different, too, to the rural Ugandan doctor who, faced with an emergency, is able to request information via text message from a hospital in Kampala.
Jan Chipchase and his user-research colleagues at Nokia can rattle off example upon example of the cellphone's ability to increase people's productivity and well-being, mostly because of the simple fact that they can be reached. There's the live-in housekeeper in China who was more or less an indentured servant until she got a cellphone so that new customers could call and book her services. Or the porter who spent his days hanging around outside of department stores and construction sites hoping to be hired to carry other people's loads but now, with a cellphone, can go only where the jobs are. Having a call-back number, Chipchase likes to say, is having a fixed identity point, which, inside of populations that are constantly on the move - displaced by war, floods, drought or faltering economies - can be immensely valuable both as a means of keeping in touch with home communities and as a business tool. Over several years, his research team has spoken to rickshaw drivers, prostitutes, shopkeepers, day laborers and farmers, and all of them say more or less the same thing: their income gets a big boost when they have access to a cellphone.
This understanding of how being connected to this immensely powerful emerging global communications network was behind the two papers NDN released last year, A Laptop in Every Backpack and Tapping the Resources of America's Community Colleges. In these papers NDN argues for a new national committment to give all our workers and kids access to the global communications network and training on how to best use it for their own life sucess. As Alec Ross and I wrote in our Laptop paper:
It is the core premise of this paper that the emergence of a single global communications network, composed of Internet, mobile, SMS, cable and satellite technology, is rapidly tying the world's people together, is one of the seminal events of the early 21st century. Increasingly, the world's commerce, finance, communications, media and information are flowing through this network. Half of the world's 6 billion people are now connected to this network, many through powerful and inexpensive mobile phones.
Each year more of the world's people become connected to the network, its bandwidth increases, and its use becomes more integrated into all that we do. Connectivity to this network, and the ability to master it once on, has become an essential part of life in the 21st century, and a key to opportunity, success and fulfillment for the people of the world.
We believe it should be a core priority of the United States to ensure that all the world's people have access to this global network and have the tools to use it for their own life success. There is no way any longer to imagine free societies without the freedom of commerce, expression, and community, which this global network can bring. Bringing this network to all, keeping it free and open and helping people master its use must be one of the highest priorities of those in power in the coming years.
This paper offers thoughts on one piece of this commitment - how we best bring the power of this network to America's schoolchildren. Achieving the American Dream in this century increasingly requires fluency in the ways of this network and its tools - how to acquire information and do research, how to construct reports and present ideas using these new tools, how to type and even edit video. We believe we need a profound and urgent national commitment to give this powerful new 21st knowledge, essential for success in this century, to all American school children.
The implications of the spread of this mobile, global communications network are huge and only just beginning to be understood. It is a subject we've spent a lot of time thinking about, and plan to spend much more time in the coming years. We've looked hard at the coming power of mobile for advocacy at our affiliate, the New Politics Institute, and also recommend a compelling new series in the current issue of the Economist. And we are proud that Senator Obama has choosen to adopt our Community College plan outlined in our paper in his campaign for the Presidency. But there is much more to understand about how all this is changing the world, and how we can best harness it for the common good.
Bridging the Gap between Web Video and Traditional TV
A lot going on in the reimaging video front these days, the frontier where the new world of web video and the old world of traditional TV are butting up against each other, and even melding. A few stories and developments are worth pointing out:
The New York Times has a front page story today bringing the uninitiated up-to-speed on two trends we have been long talking about at the New Politics Institute: the viral nature of online media and the new media habits of the young Millennial Generation. Not a lot new there, but a nice overview with some nice numbers (Young people have tripled their voting numbers from 2004 to 2008 in the 22 states will exit polls so far.)
But there are some other nice stories elsewhere that go deeper. Micah Sifry and Andrew Rasiej have a very nice column in politico.com that analyzes the shift from soundbite to what they call "sound blast." and they lay out the numbers for web video that are starting to add up to serious impact. An example:
So far, Obama’s videos have been viewed more than 33 million times on YouTube.com — and that's not counting partial views, since YouTube only reports a full viewing as a “view.” His campaign has uploaded more than 800 video clips, and adds several more a day.
If you just look at his ten most viewed videos, here are some astonishing facts:
- The average number of views for these top ten is currently more than 1.1 million (nearly double the average from a month ago!)
- The average length of these ten videos is 13.3 minutes.
- There have been nearly 3.9 million views of the longest of Obama's most popular videos, his “A More Perfect Union” speech on race in America.
By contrast, Hillary Rodham Clinton’s YouTube numbers are nowhere as impressive as Obama's — a sign of her failure to understand and embrace the new medium than anything else. She’s garnered about 10.5 million views, but the average length of her top ten most viewed clips is only two minutes. Several of her top ten videos are actually 30-second TV ads, in fact.
There is a legitimate argument that traditional television still reaches far more people than video online. That is true, but a development that is just happening today may start to bridge that gap.
A new website called votervoter.com is just launching that will make it very easy for average individuals to create 30-second spots and get them placed on broadcast and cable television, starting with a $1,000 buy. The site is run by an advertising company with deep experience in placing TV ads, called Wide Orbit, in San Francisco.
This could be a very interesting development because you could image people banding together outside the campaigns to raise money to place popular online videos on mainstream TV. Given the looser campaign spending limits for backing ads like this, you could see a lot of money getting channeled this way. We’ll soon see.
And soon enough we will be taking a deeper look at some of these developments at our upcoming Reimaging Video event, It’s in DC on April 24th. Hope to see you there.
Race and 21st Century America
Senator Obama will give a major address today on race. Somehow this feels like one of those defining moments in a campaign, where a candidate must rise to a powerful challenge to his or her candidacy. Successful candidates seize this moments. Failed candidates don't.
For this campaign, and this candidate this issue of race is one of the defining issues of our times. In my recent essay On Obama, Race and the End of the Southern Strategy I talk about all the demographic changes happening in America today, and write:
Of all these great changes the one that may be most important today is the growth of what we call the "minority" population. When I was born in 1963 the country was almost 89 percent white, 10.5 percent African-American and less than 1 percent other. The racial construct of America was, and had been for over hundreds of years, a white-black, majority-minority construct, and for most of our history had been a pernicious and exploitive one. Of course the Civil Rights Movement (particularly the Civil Rights Act and Voting Rights Act) began to change our understanding of race around the time of my birth, but it was the Immigration Act of 1965 that changed the face of America. That act changed who would enter America, reorienting our new immigrant pool from Europe, as it had been for over 300 years, to Latin America and Asia. And America changed.
As the chart below shows (click it for a larger version), today America is 66 percent white and 33 percent "minority". While the African-American population has grown a bit, most of that increase has come from the recent historic wave of Asian and Hispanic immigrants. In my half a lifetime the "minority" population in the United States has tripled. When I was born one of out ten people walking around America were non-white. Today it is one out of three.
I think it is safe to say that America is going through the most profound demographic transformation in its long history. If current trends continue, America will be majority minority in my lifetime or soon thereafter. In a single lifetime we will have gone from a country made up largely of white Europeans to one that looks much more like the rest of the world.
If Senator Obama becomes the Democratic nominee this profound change will become something we all begin to discuss openly. Today the nation is having a big conversation about this change - whether it understands it or not - through our ongoing debate over immigration. While this debate has seen some of the most awful racist rhetoric and imagery since the days of Willie Horton, what should leave us all optimistic is that only 15 percent of the country is truly alarmed about the new wave of immigrants arriving in America. Consistently about 60 percent of the country says we need to leave all the undocumenteds here, indicating a pragmatic acceptance of the changes happening around our people and their families. Once again the uncommon wisdom of the common people appears to be prevailing here, and it is my hope, perhaps my prayer, that if Obama is the nominee American can begin to have a healthy and constructive discussion of our new population rather than what we have seen to date.
Given our nation's shameful racial history, building a national narrative, and a politics, around these powerful new demographic realities is one of the most urgent governing challenges facing our nation's leaders at the dawn of this new century. As the nation changes, and becomes more "intolerant of intolerance," there simply is no way to lead this new America, at this time, in this century, without getting this defining development of our day right.
NDN has been at the forefront these past 3 years in pushing back on manifestations of the anarchronistic - and morally unacceptable - politics of racial resentment that defined American politics in the latter half of the 20th century, the era of the Southern Strategy. And I am proud of that to no end. But now the end of the conservative ascendency in 2006, the current debate over immigration, the emergence of the Democrat's historically diverse field in 2008 is giving the country a chance to redefine our national conversation about race, to move beyond an era of racism to an era that celebrates and embraces our diversity, and lives up to that powerful American prayer of "e pluribus unum."
As I wrote in my Obama and Race essay, redefining race is a prerequisite for any post-Southern Strategy progressive majority. Moving beyond an era of racial resentment is not just the right thing to do, but as I argue it is a necessity for progressives if they hope to build a durable governing majority in this much more racially diverse - and much more tolerant - America of the 21st century. Which is why the mixed signals on race and tolerance coming from the Clinton campaign is not just morally questionable, but also dangerous for the long-term interests of the progressive movement itself.
This is the challenge and moment Senator Obama faces today. To talk about what is universal rather than specific, to embrace the inspirational principles on which this great nation was founded, to help the nation move beyond a shameful period in its history, to make it clear that he believes that as a nation, and as a world that "we are all in this together." Let us hope that he seizes this important moment and helps usher in a new and better politics for our nation.
Update: The speech was simply amazing. Read it here. We will have video links in a bit. I remain deeply proud of Barack Obama, his courage, his eloquence and his abiding faith in us and this great nation.
Update II: Video of the speech is below:
Climate Change and Security
High Noon in the Arctic
A fascinating article by Scott Borgerson in the current Foreign Affairs examines the security implications of global warming in the Arctic. With the Artic summer ice cap on track, tragically, to disappear as early as 2013 having lost over a third of its summer mass since 2001 alone, a gold rush is on in the Arctic with potentially dangerous strategic consequences.
The stakes are huge. A glance at the top of the globe reveals that, absent its blockage with ice, the Arctic is a sort of 21st Century Mediterranean, linking up some of the wealthiest parts of the world, principally the United States, Canada, Russia and Northern Europe. With the opening of the once fabled northwest passage to sea traffic, the trip from Seattle to Rotterdam will shrink by 20% while the much longer trip from Yokohama in Japan to Rotterdam will drop by 40%.
Apart from the promise of high speed sea lanes, the Arctic also holds immense mineral treasures. Scientists estimate that the Arctic may harbor over a quarter of the world's oil and natural gas reserves. Indeed, last year in a brazen assertion of rights, the Soviet Union dispatched a submarine to plant a flag on the sea floor below the North Pole to defend its claim to about a half million square miles of the Artic region. The estimated oil reserves in this region of 586 billion barrels of oil are over twice the proven reserves in Saudi Arabia!
Borgerson points out that the US remains a laggard in grasping the value of the Arctic and securing it. Despite having the world's largest navy, the US only has one seaworthy icebreaker compared to Russia's 18. And the US has held off on signing the reigning convention governing stewardship of the Artic, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea out of fears it limits our options. Unfortunately our options are receding every day.
Borgerson lays out a plan for how to create a multilateral regime to govern the Arctic. But US leadership is required.
Environmental Migrants
The Arctic is just one of many security challenges global warming is raising. A new EU report scheduled for release this week highlights the risk to security of environmental migrants as increasingly extreme weather and higher sea levels potentially displace millions of people in Africa, the Caribbean and Latin America. The US would probably be the destination of choice for Caribbean and Central American environmental refugees, adding to current immigration pressures. The refugee crisis in and around New Orleans would pale before what we would be likely to behold if sea levels continue their rise, particularly, in the event of a hurricanes, storm or other major weather catastrophes.
Clearly the security challenges of climate change and implications for other issues such as immigration are only now being recognized. We are a long way away from understanding them let alone devising solutions.
The Advertising Shift from TV to the Web
Readers of Monday’s New York Times could not avoid the theme about the transition of advertising from broadcast to more targeted options, from TV to the Web. No less than four stories on the front page and the front of the Business section had to do with this theme.
I know that the breaking Spitzer story soon overwhelmed them all, and that we at NDN and NPI are gearing up for this Wednesday’s Moment of Transformation event, but it’s worth pointing out the four as an example of the extraordinary transition the advertising world is in right now. This is hugely important because so much of politics is conducted through the morphing medium of TV, and very little of it via the web.
The front page story was “To Aim Ads, Web is Keeping Closer Eye Than You Think.” This unimposing article laid out some newly reported numbers that shows the gap opening up between old and new media companies in how much detailed data is getting collected on viewers. An accompanying chart sums it up, showing the average number of times data is collected on each visitor in a month. Yahoo is 2520, and Google is 578; but the old media’s New York Times digital is a mere 45, and Disney online is 64. The reason this is important is that the more data you have on individual viewers, the better you can target. And targeting advertising is the Holy Grail.
Then above the fold on the business section you have the next three stories that are dealing with pieces of the repercussions:
“Cable Firms Join Forces to Attract Focused Ads.” This details the unprecedented collaboration of all the major cable companies in the last six months to rapidly come up with a way to allow large national advertising buys that can filter down to the individualized home via the settop box. People have been talking about this for a decade, but now the heat is on and the cable cos seem to really be motivated to move this time.
“Serving Up Television Without the TV Set.” This lays out he numbers of how many people are now watching “television” over their computers. The numbers are getting very serious, and by all accounts the shift has happened faster than most observers anticipated. Some nice quotes in there about people stunned by the speed in which this has happened.
“TV Puts an Odd Lens on Politics.” Good old David Carr wistfully looks at how traditional TV has been covering politics. Broadcast is basically out of the game. While the nation was riveted to the primaries in Texas and Ohio, the networks were showing yet another reality TV show. The “TV” game has now shifted to the Cable outfits, but they are getting more magaziny in their presentations, with stronger and stronger points of view. This was a less important story, but one that sounded a sad note on the demise of the networks and broadcast in shaping the national political debate.
And all this was just another day in the paper of record. Stories like this are popping up every day. In fact, this is one of the reasons why the New Politics Institute has put in motion an event in DC on April 24th on “Reimagining Video.” Stay tuned for more information.
Updated NDN Study on Hispanic Electorate
HispanicsNDN released a survey in mid-February documenting trends within the Hispanic electorate. This survey incorporates those results, and adds the results from the most recent presidential primary contests that occurred on March 4th. As with the first survey, the analysis is centered on states where exit polling is available to identify the estimated percentage of Hispanic voters from the general electorate.
The findings of our research confirm trends in the Hispanic community that we saw emerge in 2006 – Hispanics are trending very Democratic and voting in much higher numbers. So far this year, 78% of Hispanics who have voted in Presidential election contests have voted Democratic. In those states where Hispanics are tracked, results have shown a dramatic increase in their share of the overall vote, skyrocketing 67%, from 9% of the overall vote in 2004 to 15% in 2008.
These results are just the latest in a long line of evidence indicating that the anti-immigrant stance of the GOP, first adopted in late 2005, has turned the Hispanic community against Republicans and has encouraged them to vote in unprecedented numbers. The votes in 2008 so far confirm previous studies suggesting that Hispanics are now a very energized and very Democratic community.
These developments pose serious problems for John McCain and his Party in 2008. A recent report by NDN, “Hispanics Rising”, quotes Mathew Dowd, the chief pollster for President Bush, as saying that for Republicans to win the White House they must garner between 38-40% In open ballot contests so far the GOP has received only 22% of the overall Hispanic vote, and McCain has received about half of that vote. Even in Arizona, Senator Obama received more Hispanics votes than Senator McCain.
As Michael Gerson, President Bush’s former chief speechwriter recently wrote:
I have never seen an issue where the short-term interests of Republican presidential candidates in the primaries were more starkly at odds with the long-term interests of the party itself. At least five swing states that Bush carried in 2004 are rich in Hispanic voters -- Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado and Florida. Bush won Nevada by just over 20,000 votes. A substantial shift of Hispanic voters toward the Democrats in these states could make the national political map unwinnable for Republicans ... Some in the party seem pleased. They should be terrified. (Washington Post, 09/19/2007)
Key Findings
- Of the Hispanics who have voted in the Presidential primaries and caucuses, 78% have voted for the Democratic candidates, 22% have voted for the Republicans.
- The share of the Democratic primary audience in those states with Hispanics populations that is Hispanic has skyrocketed, increasing from 9% of the overall electorate in 2004 to 15% in 2008, a 67% increase.
- The number of Hispanics voting in the Democratic primaries more than tripled from 2004 to 2008, passing the 3 million mark.
- In the recent Texas Democratic Primary, the electorate was majority minority (54%).
To view the full report click here.

