The Coming America

These are the three areas that the New Politics Institute has focused on in the Coming America series so far. This series studies the demographic changes that are disrupting the political status quo, such as:

The Millennial Generation: It’s no exaggeration to say that this unclaimed generation is absolutely essential to any winning progressive political formula going forward. This is a group of 83 million people and only a quarter of them are voting right now because they are just coming of age. Soon enough all 83 million will be in play. Early indications are that this generation is trending progressive. About 55 percent of those aged 18-29 voted for Kerry in 2004. There seems to be a consensus forming that this is an idealistic, civic-minded generation that is deeply concerned about the environment, and wealth inequality, among other progressive preoccupations. They could be both a core voting block and the foot soldiers of any progressive movement. Conservatives also see how vital this generation is and are deeply burrowing into college campuses, etc.

Hispanics: Hispanics will have a huge impact on American society and politics in the coming decades. Like the Millennials, this group is absolutely essential to any progressive winning coalition in the coming decades. Hispanics have been heavily progressive over the decades, but the conservatives are making inroads, particularly in first generation immigrants and those who primarily speak Spanish. The assimilated English speaking Hispanics vote overwhelmingly Democratic, but in the last two presidential cycles Bush attracted 40% of Spanish speakers.

The Exurbs: Conservative commentator David Brooks surveyed the landscape after a smashing 2002 election victory for Republicans and penned an influential New York Times op-ed, “For Democrats, Time to Meet the Exurban Voter.” In that article, he argued that the rise of America’s exurbs–those fast-growing counties at the fringes of metropolitan areas populated by legions of conservative white voters–contributed mightily to the GOP’s success in that election and would continue to do so in the future, putting progressives on the demographic ropes, so to speak. Bush’s strong showing in those same exurbs in 2004 seemed to validate Brooks’ thesis.

The view of the exurbs reflected in Brooks’ article has become part of today’s conventional wisdom about American politics. But, like most other aspects of the conventional wisdom, it confuses fact with fancy and leads us away from the fundamental questions we should be asking. Just how important are the exurbs politically today? And how much is their importance likely to increase in the future? How do different types of exurbs differ from one another? What kinds of people live there and how conservative are they, really?

The answers to these questions explode many of common myths about the exurbs that were encapsulated in Brooks’ article. And they show that, rather than being lost to conservatives forever, exurbia – at least the most significant part of it - can be progressive’s next frontier for successful political mobilization.