To: Interested Parties

From: Simon Rosenberg, Founder of the New Politics Institute

Date: 10/20/2006

The 1980s and 1990s saw a historically unprecedented wave of migration. In those two decades the number of immigrants surpassed in absolute numbers the famed immigration of the early 20th century. And if the early 20th century immigration was characterized by Europeans at Ellis Island, then this late 20th century immigration is characterized by Hispanics.

The effects of this Hispanic wave reverberate through modern America, showing no signs of slowing. Progressive organizations must begin to campaign aggressively to show Hispanics that we are on their side. And we can do this, most obviously, by speaking to the Hispanic population in ways with which they are comfortable, and through media with which they are familiar. Learning how to do so will be is of the great challenges of our time.

A Growing Population

Hispanic voters are now the largest minority group in the United States, having overtaken African Americans in 2003. The following year the Current Population Survey showed their population moving above 40 million for the first time, up more than 15 million in under a decade.

However, that’s just the baseline, the current snapshot. Anyone who thinks strategically about the future must realize that Hispanics are also poised for fast growth in the future – far more than the aging overall population. Hispanics are relatively young compared to the population as a whole: 60 % of the population is under the age of 28. For that reason, combined with higher fertility rates, they are growing much faster than the population as a whole.

Projections from the 2000 Census show how quickly this will occur, as captured in the graphic on the next page. By 2050 the Hispanic population is likely to top 100m, meaning that the Hispanic share of the American population will double to 24%. Put another way, from 2000 to 2050 the size of the Hispanic population will rise 188%. At present, one of every five children born in the United States today is Hispanic. Even without more immigration, the Hispanic population is expected to nearly double to 20% of the U.S. population in the next 25 years.

Also, the Hispanic population is growing across America, not just in areas with traditionally large Hispanic populations. Indeed, as the graphic below indicates, the southwestern states already have populations with roughly a third Hispanics, but Hispanics make up a significant percentage of many other states as well. Communicating with Hispanic voters is now a strategy that should be pursued by all progressive organizations all over the country.

Appealing to Hispanics

Following the last election, the New Politics Institute and NDN, the Washington DC-based political organization that NPI is affiliated with, conducted research to begin to build this strategy. And we drew several broad lessons from nearly a decade of trying to communicate with Hispanic audiences.

First, the Hispanic community is diverse, starting with the backgrounds of Hispanic voters. Some are more Spanish-dominant, some more English-dominant. Some have more Mexicans, some more Puerto Ricans, some have Spanish families who arrived in the 16th century, some have South and Central Americans who arrived in the 1990s. Some come from the overwhelmingly conservative Cuban Americans, others from more liberal, younger groups.

No two states have a similar make up of Hispanics and that plays out in their political beliefs. In 2004, for instance, support for John Kerry ranged from 44% in Florida, 56% in Arizona and New Mexico, 60% in Nevada to 68% in Colorado. Different voters, different campaigns, different results. There is no single national strategy to speak to Hispanics, no silver bullet.

Second, if progressives are truly to convince Hispanics that we are on their side, we need to speak to them in ways with which they are comfortable, and on media with which they are familiar. The New Democrat Network, a previous incarnation of NPI’s affiliate NDN, spent around $6 million communicating to Hispanics during 2004. Their campaign was designed to improve understanding among Hispanics of the ideas and values of the progressive movement.

Finally, campaigns aimed at Hispanics work. There is clear evidence that those groups who chose to appeal to Hispanics do get results- Hispanics are influenced by good campaigns, and especially those run in their own language, and in media environments with which they are familiar.

Why Speak in Spanish?

Simply targeting Hispanics is not sufficient – communication must also include a Spanish language strategy. Bi-lingual communication, including a Spanish language component, must become a central part of any strategy pursued by groups seeking to appeal to the Hispanic community. NDN polling research shows that about 9% of all American voters today are Hispanic. Of this 9%, about half, or 4-5% of the overall American electorate, is Spanish-language dominant, meaning that these voters prefer to speak in Spanish. Many of these voters can speak and understand English. But they prefer both to speak and be communicated with in Spanish.

 

New immigrants tend to be Spanish language dominant, at least in the first generation. And much of the movement in favor of conservatives up to 2004 came within Spanish language-dominant Hispanic voters, as the chart on the previous page shows. According to an analysis done by NDN and Bendixen and Associates, English-dominant Hispanics have been reliable supporters of progressive values and ideas, at about a 2:1 ratio. The movement towards conservatives came overwhelmingly within the Spanish-dominant community. This group went from supporting progressives by about 80:20 in 1996 to roughly 50:50 in 2004. It makes sense, therefore, for progressives to target our efforts at the group where our greatest gains can be made.

How to Move Forward

How do we begin to communicate more effectively with the Hispanic community? We at the New Politics Institute believe the following six ideas are vital first steps.

1. Communicate in Spanish. Progressives must communicate aggressively and directly with Hispanic voters on the air, in both English and Spanish.

2. Do more than promote turnout. Progressives must begin to persuade and educate Hispanics about our agenda. Conservative gains have been built on their efforts to persuade, and we can no longer afford to simply communicate about voter registration and turnout.

3. Acknowledge that not all Hispanics voters are the same. The Hispanic community is diverse. Our communication must reflect this. We have to craft effective messages that speak to Hispanics in ways that are sensitive to their culture and needs.

4. Target Hispanic voters everywhere. The Hispanic population is growing across America, not just in areas with traditionally large Hispanic populations. Communicating with Hispanic voters, using Spanish language media, is now a strategy that should be pursued by all progressive organizations.

5. Make proficiency in Latin American affairs and policy a prerequisite. Ensure that a Hispanic strategy is a core part of every campaign. If we cannot speak to Hispanic voters about issues that matter to them, then we cannot expect to successfully persuade them.

6. Invest in building long-term relationships with Hispanics at the local level. By nurturing rising stars in Hispanic communities, we can ensure that our party is the party of new Hispanic leaders.

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The New Politics Institute New Tools Campaign

The New Politics Institute has made mastering the new post-broadcast media environment one of its primary missions. We have issued a variety of reports designed to help progressives better understand the current media transformation, and to master a new set of tools that will help us make sure our message is heard in the 21^st century media world.

At our website at www.newpolitics.net you can find reports and video presentations on how commercial advertising dollars are migrating to cable and other new advertising options, the rise of progressive blogs, the power of search, the role of “influentials” and word of mouth marketing, the emergence of one-to-one political marketing and the importance of speaking in Spanish. We also have reports and video on new demographic changes in America which are, in part, driving some of these media changes.

In August, NPI intensified its advocacy of the new tools available to progressives right now, and launched a campaign we call the “New Tools Campaign.” This memo “Speak in Spanish” is part of our four-part series. Look for memos on the three other areas of our campaign, “Buy Cable,” “Engage the Blogs” and “Use Search.”

If you agree with our analysis, please become part of our campaign to help progressives master the new 21^st century media environment by sending this memo to others, and challenging others in the progressive movement to adopt these new tools now.