Published on New Politics Institute (http://www.newpolitics.net)

Old Man McCain: Updated, Revised and Worrisome [1]

New Politics [2]

Over the last several months, I've written a series of essays about how U.S. Sen. John McCain was turning out to be one of the worst candidates we've ever seen run for President (for the latest see here [3] and here [4]). His montrous flip flops, the serial mistatements about enormous issues like the difference between Sunni and Shiite, the number of troops in Iraq, his position on Social Security, his vote on the 1986 Immigration Act, his position on Immigration Reform today, his admission that he doesn't know how to use a computer. The list seems endless now.

Add that he loaded up his campaign with active lobbyists, certain to draw negative attention, his bumbling of the rehiring of Mike Murphy, and the new extraordinary set of things this week - well chronicled here [5] by Max Bergman on the Huffington Post - and it all adds up to a man simply not up to the job of running for -- or actually being -- President of the United States. In a recent appearance, I even surmised that the GOP would become so concerned with his performance that there would start to be a quiet movement to replace him at the Convention with another candidate. This moment may be upon us as the media, and the public now has no choice but to confront that there is a man running for President who seems so out of touch with basic facts, reality, his own voting record that one might even conjucture that it would be a grave risk for the United States to put him in charge of the country.

After a Republican era where governing always played 2nd fiddle to politics and power - resulting in one of the worst governments in our history - we all hoped McCain would represent a break from the truly disapointing politics of the Bush era. But his performance these last few months shows that his lack of seriousness and knowledge about policy - even running an ad saying that his energy and drilling proposals would immediately address high gas prices when everyone knows this to be, let us say, not true - shows that the McCain candidacy has itself become an extension of this awful Republican era that did so much to harm the national interests of the United States, leaving us less prosperous, less powerful in the world and certainly less free here at home.

In putting Steve Schmidt, a Bush/Rove protege, in charge of his campaign, McCain has told us all exactly what kind of man he has become, and what kind of Presidency we can expect.

Peter Leyden Takes on New Challenges, NDN and NPI Wish Pete Well [6]

Below is an announcement from Simon regarding the recent resignation of NPI Director Peter Leyden, who has moved on to tackle exciting new challenges. We all will miss Pete greatly and wish him well!

July 9, 2008

After more than two years of collaboration, I announce, with great regret, that Peter Leyden, Director of the New Politics Institute, is stepping down from his post this month.

With Pete as Director, NPI has done significant things. It produced a powerful set of papers, our "New Tools" series, which have helped and continue to help, progressives navigate the new tech and media landscape. It produced a series of compelling looks at emerging parts of the American electorate, from those who live in the Exurbs to Hispanics and to one of the most important emergent groups, the Millennials. Our "Dawn of a New Politics" PowerPoint presentation has been seen by thousands of leaders from across the country, and was brought to thousands more through our forward-looking major magazine essay, The 50-Year Strategy. NPI engaged dozens of thought leaders from across the country, which helped craft our narratives, inform our work, write our papers and participate in dozens of teaching videos and events. Pete's leadership ensured NPI a secure and meaningful place in the constellation of new entities started in recent years to help lead the progressive movement successfully into the 21st century.

Pete's contribution to NPI has been significant indeed. He has grown NPI and greatly extended its influence. He is leaving NPI well-positioned to continue its critical work and grow well into the future.

To ensure that NPI's important work continues uninterrupted, I am pleased to announce that NPI associate and blogger, Aaron Jacobs Smith, will be staying on as a consultant. In the coming months, NDN also will be hiring a new position, a West Coast Director, as well as a Washington, DC-based, Executive Director for NPI - essentially hiring two people to make up for Pete's across-the-board strong and significant contribution to NDN and NPI.

On a personal note, I have learned a great deal from Pete and am sorry to see him go. I and the whole NDN team wish him well as he takes on what will be sure to be exciting new challenges at this very critical time for our nation. Feel free to send Pete a congratulatory note at peter@leyden.org.

Engage: Commanding the New Tools and Reestablishing Equanimity with the Netroots [7]

Blogs [8] | New Politics [9]

San Francisco — On July 2, 4,391 people joined the group "Senator Obama - Please Vote NO on Telecom Immunity - Get FISA Right," expanding the group by fifty percent. The following day the group added another four thousand or so members. And to date, the group has become the largest on U.S. Senator Barack Obama's very own social networking site, MyBarackObama.com [10]. But by the holiday weekend the growth in membership dropped dramatically. Just under two thousand joined during the 4, 5 and 6 of July combined. Granted it was a holiday weekend, but the trend was evident on Monday, July 7, as well when only 1,627 people signed onto the group. What accounts for this steep decline in interest? Did all of the sudden the well of outspoken activists run dry? Did the Netroots stop caring about FISA and retroactive immunity? While I'd imagine that the latter seems unlikely, the former could be true if weren't for the fact that there is a more plausible explanation based on a significant event that took place right around the time the drop occurred.

At 4:38 Eastern on July 3, Obama responded [11]. Joe Rospars, the campaign's director of new media, posted an entry to his MyBarackObama.com blog containing a response written by Barack Obama addressing the mounting groundswell of dissent. But that's not all. Three members of the campaign's policy staff spent over an hour trying to address comments submitted to the post. In essence, Obama and his presidential campaign made it clear that they are listening even if they are unwilling to capitulate. And it appears that many felt as if being heard was not insignificant. Not only did the number of new members per day drop dramatically after the action taken by the campaign, but there has also been a steady decline in traffic on the group's listserv. 464 messages were sent to the group on July 3 and by the 7th, 218 were sent.

Just to be clear, I don't think the decline in activity surrounding this group should be taken to mean that Obama has suddenly erased the deep concerns that many of his supporters have over his acceptance of the FISA bill. I don't think he has. But what I do think, is that he has dispelled some of the anger by showing that he has not forgotten about a significant number of active supporters and that he is willing to listen and respond. The manner in which the Obama campaign handled the frustrations of its online supporters is very munch in line with something the New Politics Institute [12] (NPI) and NDN [13] have long recommended to organizations and political leaders, engage.

In NPI's New Tools [14] memo "Engage the Blogs [15]" written by Jerome Armstrong of MyDD.com [16], the advice given is to not be afraid of the Netroots but to reach out, interact, and fully engage. That's what Obama did here and his use of the strategy appears to have been a success.

Wise Words About the Common Challenges Facing All of Us [17]

On Thursday, the Washington Post published [18] a very thoughtful op-ed, Global Action to Save Global Growth, by Secretary of the United Nations Ban Ki-moon. For those trying to define the narrative, the agenda, the language and better understand the challenges of the era after Bush, this well-crafted piece offers a glimpse into what will be a very different era of global politics and economics:

HOKKAIDO, Japan -- Global growth is the leitmotif of our era. The great economic expansion, now in its fifth decade, has raised living standards worldwide and lifted billions out of poverty.

Yet today, many wonder how long it can last. The reason: Plenty comes at an increasingly high price. We see it daily in the rising cost of fuel, food and commodities. Consumers in developed countries fear the return of "stagflation" -- inflation coupled with slowing growth or outright recession -- while the world's poorest no longer can afford to eat.

Meanwhile, climate change and environmental degradation threaten the future of our planet. Growing populations and rising wealth place unprecedented stress on the earth's resources. Malthus is back in vogue. Everything seems suddenly in short supply: energy, clean air and fresh water, all that nourishes us and supports our modern ways of life.

As the leaders of the Group of Eight gather here, we know that these issues affect us all: north and south, large nations and small, rich and poor. And we know we must find ways to extend the benefits of the global boom to those who have been left behind, the so-called "bottom billion." In dealing with problems of such dimension and complexity, there is only one possible approach: to see them for what they are -- as parts of a whole requiring a comprehensive solution.

A big part of that solution should be a "global supply-side response," as some economists put it, grounded in sustainable development -- nations, international financial organizations, the United Nations and its various agencies working together as one.

Begin with the global food crisis. It has many causes, among them a failure to give agricultural development the importance it deserves. What's needed, in effect, is a "green revolution" of the sort that once transformed Southeast Asia, this time with a focus on small farmers in Africa. With the right mix of programs, there is no reason productivity cannot be doubled within a relatively short span, easing scarcity worldwide. We've seen it happen in Malawi, which with international assistance has shifted within a few years from being a country plagued by famine to one that exports food.

In Hokkaido, I will call on G-8 nations to triple official assistance for agricultural research and development over the next three to five years. We must act immediately to get seeds, fertilizers and other agricultural "inputs" to farmers in vulnerable countries in time for the coming harvests. We must encourage nations to eliminate the export restrictions that many placed on foodstuffs this spring, as well as the more long-standing subsidies that many developed nations provide their farmers. Such artificial barriers distort trade patterns and drive up prices, deepening the immediate crisis and jeopardizing global growth.

With climate change, as well, sustainable development figures large in the solution. Most experts agree that we are nearing the end of cheap energy. Alternative technologies are among our best hopes for cleaner, affordable power. Here, too, a new "green revolution" is underway. The United Nations Environment Program has found that $148 billion in new funding went into sustainable energy last year, up 60 percent from 2006 and accounting for 23 percent of new power-generating capacity.

Our job, as national and international leaders, is to help guide and accelerate this nascent economic transformation. We need to change social behavior and consumption patterns throughout the developed world. And we must help developing countries "green" their economies by spreading climate-friendly technologies as broadly as possible.

We can take a big step forward in Hokkaido. Mindful of our responsibilities to the poorest nations most vulnerable to climate change, we must fully fund the global Adaptation Fund and make it operational. Looking forward to the December climate change summit in Poznan -- and to Copenhagen in 2009 -- we must push ahead with negotiations for a comprehensive agreement limiting greenhouse gases. Above all, we need to inject a sense of urgency and real leadership into this quest. It is not enough to set goals for 2050, far down the road. We need a middle-term timeline to 2020 if we are serious about promoting change now.

Lastly, Hokkaido will test our commitment to the Millennium Development Goals. For Africa alone, donors have pledged $62 billion a year by 2010. Those in need have faces: mothers who die needlessly in childbirth, infants stunted through life because they do not receive adequate nutrition during their first two years. We promised to help. Now is the time to do so.

Never in recent memory has the global economy been under such stress. More than ever, this is the moment to prove that we can cooperate globally to deliver results: in meeting the needs of the hungry and the poor, in promoting sustainable energy technologies for all, in saving the world from climate change -- and in keeping the global economy growing.

These are the ties that bind us. We must act, in Hokkaido and beyond -- not merely because it is the right thing to do but also because it is in the enlightened self-interest of all of us.

In the coming month, NDN will be attempting to address some of the themes raised in this piece. This week we will host a major new speech by U.S. Sen. Jeff Bingaman on the future of the climate change debate in the United States; our new Green Project will release a new paper on the Solar Tax Credit and the need to invest in renewable energy sources; NDN Globalization Initiative Chairman Rob Shapiro will host a lunch looking at a new paper he's released that makes a compelling argument for how and why we can enact a carbon tax; we will host a discussion with Hon. Carolina Barco, Colombian Ambassador to the United States, who will discuss the state of our hemispheric relations and how we can best meet our common challenges; we will release a new paper that looks at the centrality of mobile devices in helping struggling nations grow; we will release a video interview with U.S. Rep. Adam Smith, author of the Global Poverty Act, a far-sighted piece of legislation that will position America to lead the world in meeting the Millennium Development Goals cited above; we will conduct an event on how high energy prices will affect America, a nation built on the assumption of low-cost energy; and of course, we will be banging away each day here on our blog and with the media.

To us at NDN, these are hard times, struggling times for our nation. But also a time of possibility, a time in which we can imagine once again doing big and important things, and leading America and the world with grace, confidence and success into the very different global political terrain of the 21st century.

Sen. McCain, Clarify Your Immigration Position [19]

Hispanics [20]

When John McCain returns from his trip to Colombia and Mexico, he needs to clarify where he stands on the very important issue of how to best fix our broken immigration system. Once a great leader on immigration reform, his recent statements make clear that to win the Republican nomination and appeal to the anti-immigrant sentiment in his own party, he abandoned legislation that he himself authored and has now betrayed the immigrant community he once championed.

For someone like myself, who has worked hard, in a non-partisan way, to fix the broken immigration system these last few years, I find it incredible that John McCain would not just abandon his strong advocacy of comprehensive immigration reform, but attempt to mislead people about his record. This past weekend, we saw him - at a very important gathering of Hispanic leaders - misrepresent [21] his position on the last great immigration reform bill in 1986.

In this 2008 interview [22] with Tim Russert, McCain said his own legislation was dead. In this presidential primary debate [23] in Los Angeles, McCain said he would not vote for his own bill.

Once for comprehensive immigration reform, now against it. Once against the 1986 immigration bill, now for it. John McCain, when you come home this week from your travels, it is critical that you clarify just exactly where you stand on the important issue of immigration reform.

Social Networking: A New Tool Pushed Back in Time by an Old Candidate [24]

Social Networking [25]

I just blasted away close to $2.8 billion in pork-barrel spending in three minutes using veto lasers and I'm only on level 2 with 4 McCains left. Not too shabby, right? This is all thanks to an application for Facebook created by U.S. Sen. John McCain's presidential campaign which, instead of reeling in young people as it is most likely designed to do, serves as a glaring illustration of how poorly they understand the demographic.

"Pork Invaders," as the game is called, is an application that anyone with a Facebook account can install in which the player shoots piggy-banks with vetoes as the piggies move back and forth across the screen dropping small, what appear to be, upside-down crosses at your McCain-logo-box-ship. As you skewer pork with vetoes, you save taxpayers millions, but be sure to keep an eye out for the pork-barrels -- strike down one of those and you're well on your way to balancing the budget and paying off our national debt. And after completing a level, you are rewarded with McCain campaign talking points trashing U.S. Sen. Barack Obama's record on earmarks while trumpeting his own. Check out the screen-shot below.

I doubt this venture into the world of social networking will give Obama supporters much to worry about. The game looks like an artifact of the early 1980s and surely those upside-down crosses will not do much to woo fence-sitting Christian conservatives. Moreover, when you look at just the sheer numbers, Obama has around 1,040,000 supporters on Facebook compared to McCain's 150,000. Still, I want to at least commend the McCain campaign for making the effort to reach out through social networks, but releasing an online game that looks painfully out of date will not only remind voters of the candidate's own distance from youth but may also instantiate McCain's recent declaration of computer illiteracy (see Maggie Barker's post [26]), neither association being particularly flattering.

At NDN and the New Politics Institute [27], we have done a lot of work to help progressives better understand social networking. Click on the link here [28] to find practical guidance on how to best engage social networks, including a memo written by Facebook's chief privacy officer. Below is a video from a recent NPI event during which Beth Kanter, a professional blogger and technology trainer, shares some of her thoughts on how to successfully utilize social networks.




Google, Redefining the One-Stop Shop [29]

Blogs [30]

In a Wall Street Journal article [31], Emily Steel reports that Google is set to release a new tool which measures Internet use. Intended to help advertisers identify the best places to buy online ads, the products most valuable asset might be its cost.

Unlike other services that gather data on internet use largely by tracking the online activity of different panels of people, such as comScore and Nielsen, Google will be offering its new advertising tool to marketers for free.

An excerpt from the article:

 

"Google's new tool could bring more efficiency to the process of buying online ads, ad executives say. Google already has one of the dominant systems for online ad-serving, which helps Web publishers manage their advertising sales and serve up ads each time a consumer opens one of their Web pages. The Web-audience data could be combined with the ad-serving system, so that advertisers would be able to find out whether they would reach the right audience before they committed to placing an ad. Existing ad-serving systems don't currently provide detailed Web-audience data about the sites where they place ads. By giving away the new tool, Google could presumably attract more ad business."

In addition, Google is expected to produce another tool which will show how web users respond to online ads. By comparing groups of people exposed to an ad with others who haven't been exposed, Google is able to account for such factors as search activity and site visitation. These tools combine to offer amazing opportunities for marketers on all levels as access to such a tool could save billions in the advertising world.

One-stop shops generally rely on more affordable prices to compensate for a lower quality package of services. However, the new Google marketing service will be both the most affordable and advanced technology on the market - making Google the one-stop shop to end all one-stop shops.

The Story of the Race So Far - the Surprising Weakness of John McCain [32]

First Newsweek [33] showed Obama up 51-36. Now LATimes/Bloomberg [34] has it 48-33. The two daily tracks Rasmussen and Gallup still have it 4-6 points. So where are we?

I believe deeply that the race for President wants to be a 10 point Obama victory. The underlining structure of the 2008 campaign has Democrats with 10 plus point advantages in all the major measures - party ID, congressional and presidential generic ballot test. In 2006, the national vote for Congress broke about 53-46, and Tom Davis, the savvy GOP Congressman, says the environment is much worse this year. Democrats are showing incredible intensity, and have created a new model of politics that will allow them to involve millions of partisans to help the campaign as never before. As I wrote [35] recently, Democratic leaning groups - women, African-Americans, Hispanics and Millennials - turned out in very high numbers in the Democratic primaries, offering what might be a very different electorate in 2008. McCain is by any historic measure, a weak and bumbling candidate, ill-suited for a presidential race, and is still struggling to bring his party together - a party which has never liked him very much anyway.

The polling has been remarkably consistent in one regard. In almost every poll, Obama is in the high 40s, which would lead one to believe this is actually where he is now. What is changing is McCain's number, which is moving around in a range from the low 40s to mid-30s. 42, 42, 38, 36 and now 33.

The conclusion - Obama is definitively ahead of John McCain at this point. Obama has unified his party and overcome problems he had with groups in the primary. He is already ahead in polls in enough states, including CO, FL, MI, NM and PA to see his path to electoral college victory. All rather remarkable for this bi-racial candidate with a funny name who few had heard of even a year ago. McCain, on the other hand, is clearly struggling to get even into the low 40s on a consistent basis. He is having a hard time bringing his party together, and his electoral college map looks problematic now. Even if Obama wins by 4-5 points, it is by presidential standards a landslide. Bush never won by that amount in either of his races. These new double digit polls also show that it is possible for this race to end up where it wants to be - which is Obama winning by 10 or more. Even the ambition of the Obama buy [36] this week is as much about McCain's weakness as it about Obama's strength.

I always assumed that this race would be close until October and then would break open for Obama with him winning by 5-10 points. But the fact that we are seeing this degree of McCain weakness this early is suprising to me, and it is this weakness that is the story of the presidential race so far.

Mark Udall's Internet Ads [37]

Any one else notice the now ubiquitous Mark Udall banner ads on the big progressive blogs?  They are among the best I've seen this year.  Attractive, message-based, animated, about "joining," not about "giving."  They are setting a new standard for ads below the presidential level, and are clearly inspired by the success of Obama's deep success on the Internet. 

For more on how to best use the Internet in your advocacy work, explore the New Politics Institute site, where you can find papers on to buy ads on the Internet, how to buy search and how to optimize your site for search engines, how to engage the blogs and the role of "influentials" in all marketing.  It is a powerful package and very much worth reviewing. 

San Francisco Bay Area Money Behind Obama, as North finally tops Southern California [38]

Follow the money. That’s the mantra that can go a long way towards explaining a lot in life, and often much in politics. Starting last fall there was a palpable sense in the San Francisco Bay Area and its Silicon Valley that people were moving their money to Obama. Only now are the analyses coming in that definitively show the shift – along with a shift in the political money center of gravity to the north of the state. The San Francisco Chronicle has a terrific original research project [39] that lays it out, complete with some great graphics [40]. Some highlights:

California contributions to presidential candidates have surged so much
during the current campaign that if it were a state, the area would
rank fourth in the nation.

The rise is a reflection of the influence of Silicon Valley and a flood of donations to Democratic Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, who has raised a great deal of his campaign money through Internet fundraising and social networking.

Six of the top 10 ZIP codes for fundraising in California are in the northern half of the state. That includes three in San Francisco and one each in Palo Alto, Menlo Park and Burlingame.

"It's not that Southern California is giving less, it's that Northern California is giving more" said Anthony Corridor Jr., a professor of government at Colby College in Maine, who specializes in campaign finance. "Silicon Valley has become much more engaged, and the new technologies of social networking and Internet-giving have made Northern California much more involved."

Obama raised $18 million in Northern California - $1.5 million more than he raised in the southern half of the state. He collected $1 in Northern California for every 17 cents raised by McCain and for every 62 cents raised by his primary contender Sen. Hilary Clinton, who did most of her fundraising in the southern part of the state. In Southern California, Obama raised $1 for every 41 cents raised by McCain and every 97 cents raised by Clinton.

This story gives grist to the argument that Josh Green laid on in this month’s Atlantic Monthly [41] about the critical function the fundraising machine from Silicon Valley played in Obama’s rise. It also comes packaged with a database [42] where readers can easily do searches about who gave what, and from what neighborhoods. Definitely worth checking out.

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